Open job opportunities in the humanitarian field. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Myanmar averaged 8.32 percent from 1994 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 13.84 percent in 2003 and a record low of 2 percent in 2020. Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). 2017: 6). The informal sector is linked to corruption, drug trafficking, smuggling, illegal migration and cross-border trade. On 25 May 2017, the Forest Department (FD) announced that whereas there had been 39.2 million hectares of forests in 1990, the figure had dropped to 29 million hectares by 2015. Mining. Building state authority has centred on the question of incorporation of ethnic minorities in the periphery: for Myanmar, resolving intrastate conflicts remains a pressing challenge. However, continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and problems of administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization in Myanmar. Heralded as a watershed moment for Myanmar, its halo effect dampened in the international media due to the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state involving the Rohingya people.5 Economic situation Since Myanmar began its transition to civilian-led government in 2011, the country initiated economic reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and U Phyo Min Thein, Chief Minister, Regional Government of Yangon: Interview, Country Profile, from The Report: Myanmar 2018, Growing economy following higher foreign investment and improved public spending in Myanmar, U Kyaw Win, Minister of Planning and Finance: Interview, Efforts to improve Myanmar's investment environment, New policies and initiatives encouraging small business development in Myanmar, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam: Interview, Impacts of lower corporate tax rates on developed and developing economies. Petroleum sector. Khine Tun, Economist. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. Myanmar Elections 2020; Township Profiles; Conflict Analysis; Population & Housing Census (2014) New Legislation; Human Rights Instruments; Aid Policy and Coordination; Sustainable Development Goals; GIS Resources & Agency Maps. There are two main drivers: unsustainable logging and extensive agricultural development. The forest industry has been grossly mismanaged: at the present rate of deforestation, the forests will disappear by 2035. Rather, the Tatmadaw in its own right has become the basis for the formation of an economic elite, and has hence developed an economic self-interest in the continuation of military rule. GDP growth. Much of the population is engaged directly in agricultural pursuits. However, ongoing political tensions and elevated uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic cloud the outlook. Members of the urban middle class in areas dominated by the majority Bamar ethnic group have been the major beneficiaries of the new reforms, whereas the economic benefits for rural constituencies have been less noticeable, especially in conflict-affected ethnic states where land-grabbing has been widespread. While its self-perception is that of a professional army that protects the sovereignty and unity of the Union of Myanmar, it is not under democratic political control. There has been considerable growth in CSOs, especially after Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and the expansion of political space since 2011, but most CSOs still have limited political access and influence. The 2016/2017 annual reports from Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International highlight human rights abuses in the context of ethnic armed conflicts; discrimination and violence against the Rohingya minority; restrictions on freedom of expression; abuses of women’s rights and reduced international scrutiny. Investment | Analysis Investment is an important factor to sustain economic growth. After five decades of autocratic military rule, Burma (also known as Myanmar) has initiated a critical transformation to representative democracy. International human rights organizations confirm improvements since 2011, but also find that there has been little change in some important areas. Large-scale dam construction projects often cause discontent among the local population due to lack of proper stakeholder consultation and coordination, often leading to displacement and environmental degradation. Open training opportunities in the humanitarian field. Climate change. Myanmar is one of the world’s countries most vulnerable to climate change (Kreft et al. Myanmar’s economy, based on the kyat (the national currency), is one of the least developed of the region and is basically agricultural. The NLD government’s peace process revolves around ‘The Union Peace Conference’ (21st Century Panglong Conference). Religious actors. All this means that the transformation towards democratic policymaking and bureaucratic professionalism may well seem slow. We advocate for effective and principled humanitarian action by all, for all. Development cooperation. February 2018 ... rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. List of alerts, ongoing and past disasters covered by ReliefWeb. The core structure of military state power and the centralized nature of the state pose evident obstacles to the peace process. State autonomy: The persistence of military state capture. Core causes of ethnic conflict are political grievances related to ethnic self-determination, representation and equality, war-related security and development grievances, and the mistrust and resentment fuelled by failed peace initiatives. This has an impact on state capacity in policy-making and public administration, and poses challenges for external engagement. Learn more about ReliefWeb, leading online source for reliable and timely humanitarian information on global crises and disasters since 1996. The conflict may also be used strategically for the dual purpose of destabilization and securitization, especially by actors within the military. The unsolved crisis in Rakhine … With the 2017–2018 Rohingya crisis in Rakhine State, Muslim countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and neighbouring Bangladesh have also contributed to shaping Myanmar’s international relations. Myanmar needs smart development aid that can take the many local factors into account. Fish farming plays an important role in ensuring food security, employment and SME growth. Growing Economy The World Bank projects economic growth will be 6.2 percent in FY 2018-2019 (a slight decrease in previous years’ projections). Myanmar inflation rates forecasted at 6.0% in both 2020 and 2021 – ADO 2020 Update. Politics Myanmar’s current political situation must be understood with reference to the country’s long history of military statebuilding. The various ethnic groups agree that only political negotiations on self-determination, federalism and ethnic equality can resolve the ethnic conflicts in Myanmar. This strengthens the military’s interest in maintaining control, thereby increasing the risks of corruption, human rights violations and continued conflict. The subject of this Discussion was: “Women and Economic Policy Leadership for 2020 and Beyond“.We are extremely grateful to Thi Dar Nwe, Senior Policy Specialist, Myanmar Development Institute and Cheery Zahau, Country Program Director, Burma/Myanmar, Project 2049 … In 2016–2017, investors became increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of economic reform (Vakulchuk et al. Despite attempts to improve donor coordination after the NLD government came to power, much still remains to be done. The Myanmar Development Institute (MDI) is an economic think‐tank to strengthen the analytical capacity of the government of Myanmar in the formulation and implementation of long-term national development agenda and specific policy actions based on the 12-point economic policy. Economic indicators for Myanmar. Moreover, women have played only a limited role in the peace process, and there has been little progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325) on Women, Peace and Security. While the Constitution grants state/region governments some authority concerning tax resource extraction, this is limited to less valuable resources. Agriculture is the biggest contributor to GDP (more than 35% in 2014) and employs more than 65% of the population, but the petroleum sector is likely to play a leading role in generating economic growth. This economy is upheld by informal elite pacts that were solidified under the military era, involving many who are members of the military and crony companies. The key questions among EAOs, in the past and today, are how to build ethnic alliances and engage with the state in order to achieve self-determination and equality within a federal state. Climate change may appear to be an abstract and remote problem for a country with many more pressing concerns, but the impacts of climate change on Myanmar are proving more immediate than expected, and are likely to be even greater in the future. These engage in various roles in the context of limited state presence and capacity and armed conflict (mutual self-help, humanitarian relief, public service delivery and political advocacy), and with complex relations between CSOs and the state. When asked about what is most important now – democracy or economy – most Myanmar citizens opt for economy (Welsh & Huang 2016a). Access your account or create a new one for additional features or to post job or training opportunities. However, there is a long way to go before real progress in governing the mining sector is achieved. The strong and complex links between Buddhism and politics in Myanmar have underpinned the recent re-emergence of Buddhist nationalism. Hydropower generation is controversial in Myanmar. After 2011 the Tatmadaw displayed some flexibility on issues not deemed to be its primary interests, but little flexibility on questions of the unity, sovereignty and stability of the Union. The upstream petroleum business is open to foreign investors, whereas downstream is restricted. Limited infrastructure remains a major hurdle to economic growth – for instance, only 37% of the population have access to electricity (World Bank 2017a). Migration, climate change and humanitarian needs Migration. The 2008 Constitution and subsequent political reforms brought a degree of decentralization from the union level to the state/regional level. Myanmar is heavily influenced by external actors, where ASEAN, Australia, Khine Tun joined the IMF Myanmar Office in January 2014. In brief. Poor coastal aquaculture management leads to overexploitation and illegal fishing in Myanmar’s territorial waters. Myanmar has a multi-layered civil society with a great many types of CSOs, ranging from grassroots movements to more organized and professionalized NGOs. Curated pages dedicated to humanitarian themes and specific humanitarian crises. 27 August 2018. Numbers of Internet, social media and mobile users in Myanmar in 2018 Myanmar trade data. Some non-state actors have de facto territorial control and provide public services, displaying a state-like character. 2017). Find our research on the Bloomberg Terminal, Dow Jones Factiva, Eikon, S&P Capital IQ, LexisNexis and more. The potential of coastal and ocean fisheries remain largely unrealized. Budget processes in Myanmar still have limitations that act as barriers to local participation and greater government accountability. Forestry. Aung San Suu Kyi has been criticized by the international community for inaction and silence on the Rohingya crisis and for doing little to prevent grave human rights abuses by the military, against a stateless community that is recognized by neither Myanmar nor Bangladesh. Many acknowledge that Myanmar’s democracy is flawed, and the level of trust in political institutions is low. Changing civil–military relations, i.e. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the military rulers’ interest in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states (primarily the USA) and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Stay updated on how some of the world’s most promising markets are being affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and what actions governments and private businesses are taking to mitigate challenges and ensure their long-term growth story continues. The Tatmadaw has long been the most influential political actor. For 2018 estimate, Myanmar's GDP per capita will be $6,509 in PPP per capita and $1,490 in nominal per capita. Without the participation and influence of the major EAOs, the political process is unlikely to yield substantive and lasting peace. Control over natural resources has been a major driver of conflicts in ethnic areas. Regarding gender rights and women’s participation in the economy, the period 2006–2016 has seen some improvements. After opening up in 2012, Myanmar attracted numerous international organizations and donors. ReliefWeb Labs projects explore new and emerging opportunities to improve information delivery to humanitarians. A peace agreement could put additional pressure on forests and accelerate deforestation: when the armed groups that previously controlled various forest areas lay down arms, these areas will be available for companies involved in illegal logging. Budget. Causes of ethnic conflicts. Peace initiatives. Some areas that are contested or controlled by ethnic armed groups have parallel systems of resource governance. With the change of government in 2011 came a series of political reforms in support of basic civil rights, electoral democracy and economic growth. Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis Kristian Stokke, Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Øverland Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2018. Find help on how to use the site, read terms and conditions, view the FAQs and API documentation. Contents Economy and society. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth in Myanmar was projected to pick up to 6.3 percent in FY2019/20 and 6.4 percent in FY2020/21. Meanwhile, ASEAN has incrementally developed a policy of constructive engagement with Myanmar. Aid soared by 788% within just a year, from USD 504 million in 2012 to USD 4.5 billion in 2013. Myanmar has one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, with average economic growth of 7.5% during the period 2012–2016, and … This makes it important for international assistance to design and implement ‘politically smart’ strategies in support of substantive democracy and peace. To analyze the impact of this process, this study compares the trajectories of actual and counterfactual GDP per capita after the referendum using the synthetic control method. He is in charge of data management and economic analysis. List of organizations that are actively providing ReliefWeb with content. Government institutions need a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both direct impacts on Myanmar and indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh (Overland et al. It is estimated that Myanmar had a broad-based increase in growth of national income as well as lower inflation and improved fiscal and external balances. Latest humanitarian reports, maps and infographics and full document archive. With low trade volumes currently, Myanmar's economic opening now sets the country's towards important growth in the coming years. The military (Tatmadaw). The last Quarterly Economic Development & Outlook Discussion took place on Tuesday, December 10th, 2019. Myanmar Economic Forecast for 2018 and Economic Update Overview: Myanmar’s economy is expected to recover in 2017/2018 due to the notable reforms and strong foreign investment flowing into the … GDP Annual Growth Rate in Myanmar decreased to 2 percent in 2020 from 6.50 percent in 2019. However, many challenges remain, such as 30% wage disparity between men and women and low rate of female participation in the national economy (DFAT 2016: 5). Inflation. From 2011 onwards, these reforms also created an opening for Western states to suspend or lift sanctions and engage in state capacity building, and for UN agencies and international NGOs to strengthen their engagement with Myanmar. Transforming civil– military relations remains the core challenge for substantial conflict resolution, democratization and development. However, Myanmar is still in a highly critical phase, and external support can be decisive for the NLD-government’s ability to carry out planned reforms. External headwinds, internal conflict and delayed implementation of some key reform policies will undoubtedly continue to weigh on macroeconomic growth, but Myanmar’s economic forecast remains broadly positive. In particular, the autonomy of the state is circumscribed by the economic and political influence of the military. Burma’s economic freedom score is 54.0, making its economy the 141st freest in the 2020 Index. The key question on process design concerns sequencing: which should come first, political negotiations on arrangements for a federal union, or arms surrender in a nationwide ceasefire as a precondition for political talks? It feeds ethnic tensions in various parts of the country, and is likely to remain a major source of domestic social and political tension in the near future. Although it has moderated from earlier double-digit highs, GDP growth remained robust in the early 2010s, accelerating from 5.3% in 2010 to 5.6% in 2011, 7.3% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. Informal economy and corruption. Myanmar has a pressing need for foreign direct investment (FDI). The Central Bank of Myanmar lowered its policy rate to 7%. 19+ million members; ... but note that legislative changes have created a new fiscal year for 2018/19 . Explore any of the chapters below to select an article. The increasing involvement of foreign donors also involves risks, as the state has limited capacity to absorb assistance. The present study estimates the causal effect of a process of political change, namely, a recent constitutional referendum, on economic growth in Myanmar. Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis. For example, half of the multi-billion USD jade trade is illegal. Although Myanmar has gradually improved its ranking in the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, moving from 157th place in 2013 to 136th out of 176 countries in 2016 (Transparency International 2017), corruption remains widespread and pervasive. Myanmar is now in turmoil after the military staged a coup against the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) and detained its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, over alleged fraud in the election held in November 2020. The opportunities for popular participation are limited – a major challenge for the legitimacy of the state, despite the successful introduction of electoral democracy, with the 2015 electoral victory for NLD representing a strong show of support for democratization. 2017). Find latest updates on global humanitarian responses, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Cáritas reclama en Myanmar el retorno a la democracia y a la paz, Joint Call for a Global Arms Embargo on Myanmar: An Open Letter to the UN Security Council and Individual UN Member States [EN/MY], Myanmar: UN expert sounds alarm ahead of expected protests. *Kristian Stokke, Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Øverland *, Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2018. State fragility and legitimacy. Land rights and land disputes also complicate forest management. Nandar Hlaing, Office Manager. Myanmar therefore greatly needs support in strengthening its technical capacities. The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Transition (Jones 2014): A political economy analysis of Myanmar’s transition to 2013, with a particular focus on military involvement in the private sector, national entrepreneurs and cronies, and ceasefire capitalism in the border regions. Disrupted by Covid-19, will South-east Asia's super apps join forces? The other ASEAN member countries are more developed than Myanmar, providing an impetus for the country’s reform-oriented path as it seeks to catch up. But various regional and national tensions threaten the already tenuous transition; the Rohingya crisis, on-going clashes between ethnic armed organizations and the military in Kachin and Shan States, disagreements between the military and … State authority: The contested authority of the unitary state. Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts have deep historical roots and revolve around political grievances about state form, power-sharing and ethnic equality. Data and Statistics, DICA Myanmar 2. With the termination of U.S. economic sanctions in 2016 and new economic reforms coming on line, now could be the right time for U.S. firms to consider Myanmar as a potential market. Will RCEP help drive Asia’s Covid-19 recovery? Also, some local actors feel that not all international consultants who work in Myanmar have sufficient country expertise. However, net outbound labour migration from Myanmar seems likely to increase and diversify in the coming years, as neighbouring economies and Myanmar’s linkages with them continue to grow. Myanmar suffers from large-scale deforestation that has accelerated in recent decades. In 2017-2018… Hydropower. Inclusivity in the process is essential. To which sectors of the Myanmar economy. Myanmar is thus a country with long and continued attention to statebuilding – but the state has been dominated by the military, although some degree of power has been transferred to a civilian government headed by the NLD, and the authority, capacity and legitimacy of the state remain fragile. OCHA coordinates the global emergency response to save lives and protect people in humanitarian crises. Myanmar The Human Capital Index (HCI) database provides data at the country level for each of the components of the Human Capital Index as well as for the overall index, disaggregated by gender. Among other things, Myanmar has the greatest power-sector investment needs among the countries of Southeast Asia. After the 2015 elections, China regained greater influence, not least through its active role in the Myanmar peace negotiations, accompanied by efforts at improving its image through corporate social responsibility programmes and engagement with a broad range of stakeholders. Just as the country was coming to grips Detailed analysis The Myanmar government’s continued stability depends on key compromises with the still-politically-powerful military, which holds three key cabinet posts The lack of an efficient regulatory system and effective laws explains why the informal system has become so widespread. Observations from reviewing the budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year show that the local implementation of activities is still heavily dependent on funds approved at the national level. He holds degrees from Yangon Institute of Economics (B.Com and M.Dev.S) and Kyung Hee University of South Korea (M.A., Economics). One explanation of the rapid economic growth is the country’s young population, which helps ensure high growth in consumption and incomes during the period 2015–2025. This chapter contains interviews with U Kyaw Win, Minister of Planning and Finance; U Phyo Min Thein, Chief Minister, Regional Government of Yangon; and Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. According to the major EAOs, there can be no real peace without political negotiations on the questions of ethnic self-determination and federalism. Myanmar’s macroeconomic performance improved in 2018 as recovery in the agriculture sector, rising oil and gas prices, and substantial growth in several manufacturing segments helped the country regain positive momentum. The shift to a democratically elected government has widened the space for more inclusive policy-making, but this appears to be hampered by an organizational culture of hierarchical decision-making within the ruling NLD, the government and the civil service. However, the devolved powers and responsibilities, as specified in the Region and State Hluttaw Legislative List, remain limited in scope.