Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to ⦠Today we are going to take a look at the Southern Lights forecast or as it is also known the Aurora Australis forecast. In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. In 2013, Newell upgraded the OVATION Prime model so that it would more accurately capture large geomagnetic storms. Built with a sleek dark design, it appeals to both tourists and serious aurora watchers by telling you what you want to know - whether that is exactly how likely you are to see the aurora borealis or details about the solar winds and high-resolution sun imagery. Predictions are very similar to the weather in that they are not always 100% accurate. The top places to see the southern lights on this list are based from Hobart, the capital city. On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This auroral zone covers Central and northern Alaska and Canada, Greenland, northern Scandinavia and Russia in the Northern Hemisphere, and Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80305, 27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Radio Flux and Geomagnetic Indices, Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity, Geoalert - Alerts, Analysis and Forecast Codes, Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps, North American (US Region) Total Electron Content, Geoelectric Field 1-Minute (Empirical EMTF - 3D Model), STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO). It is closely related to the ground induce currents that impact electric power transition. The Aurora Australis is not as well-known as the Aurora Borealis in the north but if you catch it on the right night, it is just as amazing. This is measured on a scale called the Kp scale which runs from 0-9. The Perfect Conditions to See the Southern Lights â Aurora Australis Forecast In order to see an aurora from New Zealand, there needs to be solar activity with strong gusts of solar winds reacting with the magnetosphere. Created by activity around the sun, they can appear at any time of year. The sun has a heartbeat. See aurora. What Is The Difference Between The Northern Lights, The Five Best Places To See The Southern Lights. The Locations. This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. Space weather maps and predictions are helpful, but ultimately the sun decides. Get as far away from light pollution as possible. WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction. Just located in downtown Reykjavik, this lighthouse is a popular viewing point in Iceland as it is walking distance from the centre of town. The southern lights start at a height of around 100km up in the atmosphere; thus, from a flat point on the earth, you can see the aurora activity even hundreds of kilometers north of the "epicenter." The Role of Religion in History & Society. In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. The Aurora Borealis, in the North, and the Aurora Australis, in the South, are two of the most exciting spectacles you can witness on earth. With clear skies and no light pollution the chances of getting some amazing shots are good! Antarctica. Historical View of the sun spotsFor 400 years, from the time of Galileo until now, we have been keeping track of the number of these sunspots and, ⦠So where can you find a forecast for the Southern Lights? KP Index Forecast. Using data from magnetometers worldwide alongside social media posts we can estimate where the Aurora Borealis could be seen. If a solar storm is approaching and the Aurora in the North has a high activity level, then you will also get some excellent displays in the Southern Hemisphere. Auroras happen in the upper atmosphere, so if there are clouds blocking your view of the stars, you won't be able to see the Aurora. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. Northern lights forecast. USAF 45-Day Ap and F10.7cm Flux Forecast. Well, itâs got a lot to do with land. The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. Spotting the Southern Lights is notoriously difficult due to the fact that there is very little land far enough south to give people the opportunity of seeing this wonder of nature. Auroral data in a grided format for the entire Earth is available in compressed JSON format: The latest JSON file is available as well. Australia and New Zealand (Southern Lights) Step 2 -- Check the Weather. The Southern Lights need solar activity in the form of strong solar winds, which will cause a geomagnetic storm. National Centers for Environmental Prediction . Dark Skies. However, don’t let this deter you! Weekly Highlights and 27-Day Forecast. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. Southern lights seen from space. For many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe. The scale ranges from 0 to 9 where a value of 0 means that there is very little geomagnetic activity and a value of 9 means there is an extreme geomagnetic storm. In the Southern Hemisphere, they can be seen in New Zealand, Antarctica, South America and Australia. AuroraMap is a live Northern Lights forecast map. These are very accurate and can tell you what is about to happen, so you can run outside and witness the light show. The original model, based solely on DMSP data, was only reliable to Kp of 7. So if four days from now the forecast is a Kp number of 1, then it’s not the time to be heading as far South as possible in the hope of seeing something. WSA Legacy . Hobart . This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. Res., 114, A09207, doi: Machol, J. L., Green., J. C., Redmon, R. J., Viereck, R. A., Newell, P. T., (2012), Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, 3. It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather. During a weak aurora, the colours are very faint and spread out whereas an intense aurora features greater numbers of and brighter colours which can be seen higher in the sky with a distinct arc. When Kp levels are lower the rings falls well short of New Zealand and displays are much harder to see. The magnetosphere is a vast, comet-shaped bubble around our planet. The fact is though that from places like New Zealand or the tip of South America you can often see the lights. This page will tell you what you need to know about the forecast and how you can predict the Southern Lights Aurora in advance. This helps you get a sense for the distance and whether or not each will work for you. Check the conditions before you go to see the Northern Lights on your tour of Iceland. That said, the Southern Lights can be seen year round from Tasmania. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole. Image should be used as a guide only, it is based on predicted ⦠The lights are caused by solar particles colliding with the earth’s atmosphere. These links provide a discussion of the aurora phenomena and tips for the best opportunities to view aurora at various locations around the world. By adding data from the NASA TIMED GUVI instrument, Newell et al., were able to expand the model to include the larger storm values of Kp of 8 and 9. How can I see the aurora? On the very rare occasion we reach level nine, the ring extends all the way up to Southern Australia. Forecast for Tromsø : High activity and heavy clouds means that there is a chance of northern lights in Tromsø tonight TONIGHT, March 1st Go to forecast. Southern Lights Stewart Island is a great place to see the Aurora Australis, the best months being March to September. For more information on the OVATION model and aurora products, see: In 2009, Newell et. Aurora over Antarctica (Shutterstock) Just as the Northern Lights is clearly visible in the ⦠This shows the current level of aurora activity which can give an estimate of how far south aurora may be seen. The dancing lights of the aurora are seen around the magnetic poles of the northern and southern hemispheres because the electrons from the sun travel along magnetic field lines in the Earthâs magnetosphere. No one knows precisely when a light show may occur. A perfectly, dark sky without any clouds will make it easier to see the display. The southern lights are not easy to see from southern New Zealand. AuroraWatch UK is a free service offering alerts of when the aurora might be visible from the UK. Best Place To See The Southern Lights in New Zealand A mesmerising swirl of vibrant green and pink lights, the Aurora Australis is harder to catch than its northern counterpart. AuroraCast is the most fully featured aurora forecast, northern lights, and southern lights app available for mobile devices. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hourly Forecast. The chances are low to photograph them with a sensitive camera, and even lower to see one that is strong enough to be visible by eye. It is run entirely by volunteers who monitor solar activity, the solar wind and Earthâs magnetic field. Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, and S. Wing (2009), Diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora: The global precipitation budget, J. Geophys. To increase your odds of spotting the Aurora in the Southern Hemisphere it really does help to have a Southern Lights forecast. You can see the Southern Lights when it is dark, and there are no clouds in the sky. Itâs not exact, but yes. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Hopefully the information on this page will have given you the tools you need to make you able to predict the forecast and catch a glimpse of the stunning Southern Lights. Well as it turns out it is very difficult to find an Aurora Australis Forecast online. National Weather Service. The Southern Lights are unpredictable. It is run by scientists in the Space and Planetary Physics group at Lancaster Universityâs Department of Physics. Best places to see the northern lights Vs southern lights Northern lights: Grotta Lighthouse, Iceland: The aurora borealis is undoubtedly one of the best light shows on Earth, and a trip to Iceland during winter is your ticket to the grand event. If a display is predicted, certain conditions make the chance of seeing and photographing them more likely. Get away from those city lights. Why arenât the Southern Lights as popular as the Northern Lights? TO SEE THEM, YOU'LL HAVE TO GO PRETTY FAR SOUTH. Aurora Service is an Southern Lights information and news service. The OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) model is an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory by Patrick Newell and co-workers1. In 2016, NOAA SWPC shared the operational OVATION code (written in IDL) with the UK Met Office in the UK. ... Last year in September we saw the Northern Lights with a KP4 in Southern Iceland and with the moon shining to 80%. Australia's light show in the sky, the Aurora Australis or Southern Lights is as stunning as any night lights you'll see in Iceland, Norway or Canada. The northern lights (also known as aurora borealis) appear as large areas of colour including pale green, pink, shades of red, yellow, blue and violet in the direction due north. The higher the Kp level the wider the ring spread out. National Aeronautics and Space Administration . We put all the information down here in an easy to read format, enabling you to see when the southern lights might be in your area next. southern lights. Space Weather Prediction Center 325 ⦠See Live Northern Lights Forecast - Automatically Updated. I'm extremely saddened that I have to literally roast out here in the desert and I'm not able to see the Southern Lights. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2). When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time. Nine is a very rare event which happens maybe once every ten years or so and this is when the Aurora really puts on a show. With the help of this page we will try to increase your chances of catching a glimpse of the Aurora Australis. To the right of the screen you can see a map of the Southern Hemisphere. Again if you are looking for a Southern Lights forecast your best bet is to simply search instead for Northern Lights forecast and then you can use the information to work out how strong the Aurora will be in the South. The fact is that the Southern Lights are far more difficult to see than the Northern Lights. Predictions are very similar to the weather in that they are not always 100% accurate. Whereas if four days in advance a Kp number 6 is issued, then your chances are greatly enhanced. The reality is that the two Auroras run in the same way, so if there is a high level of activity in the North, the same will be true of the South. While you can see the southern lights throughout Tasmania, most travelers fly in and out of the largest city, Hobart. The UK Met Office converted the OVATION model from IDL to Python. This version has been dubbed OVATION 2020. This particular map is based on a Kp level of 6 which is very high and only happens a few times a year. And avoid a full moon, as the bright light will hinder your chances of seeing an aurora. This is determined by the gases with which the particles from the sun collide. These come from the sun, so if there is a solar explosion often caused by a sunspot, a few days later you get spectacular displays over our polar regions. Check out this guide too. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. WAM-IPE. This article was most recently revised and updated by The polar light in the northern hemisphere is called aurora borealis - or northern lights - while the polar lights in the southern hemisphere are called aurora australis, the southern lights. The Southern Lights also known as the Aurora Australis are the southern version of the more well known Northern Lights or Aurora Borealis. The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. Every eleven years or so it beats, and it beats hard. When Is The Best Time To See The Southern Lights? Aurora map. In 2020, NOAA SWPC implemented the new version of the OVATION Prime model into operations. You can predict the Aurora much like you can predict the weather. You can get a forecast about four or five days in advance and this will give you a general indication of what to expect. The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1.6 million km (1 million miles) upstream from earth as input and calculates three types of electron precipitation and the proton precipitation which strongly correlate with the aurora. But to increase your chances of seeing something it helps to be prepared and it helps to have a forecast. Darkness is best for viewing the Aurora. The colour spectrum of the northern lights The northern lights can be many different colours. It is impossible to say how much KP reduces the full moon, since, it is not the same to have a Kp4 in Iceland than in the Canadian Rockies. But catch them on a good day and they can be just as stunning. USAF Magnetometer Analysis. If you are wondering if there is any difference between the Northern Lights and the Southern Lights, this page is designed to give you the answer. Can I forecast the aurora? The Hemispheric Power Index, an estimate of the total auroral energy input at each pole, is available in ASCII format: latest HPI, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Space Weather Prediction Center For the Aurora Australis, youâre ⦠If one were to look from space, they would see a ring-shaped aurora spanning around 2500 miles (4000 kms) around both poles. This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The Northern Lights forecast is all about physics, formulas, and numbers, but donât worry. This is known as the solar cycle and is measured by the number of sunspots visible on the sun. Southern lights, also called Aurora Australis, luminous atmospheric display visible in the Southern Hemisphere. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right. Using real-time solar wind data from Nasaâs ACE spacecraft, matched with data obtained from a network of magnetometers located worldwide, we are able to forecast, with reasonable accuracy, how the Northern Lights will behave up to one hour in advance.The image shows estimated aurora activity now. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. The green ring is where the Aurora is predicted to occur. There are plenty of sites that offer a Northern Lights forecast. This is the 'kp' indicator. The more sunspots, the more solar flare energy is being released into space (which means more aurora activity!). AuroraCast is an accurate and powerful aurora borealis forecast app, but there's many more features found inside that you won't find in any other aurora forecast app! Again if you are looking for a Southern Lights forecast your best bet is to simply search instead for Northern Lights forecast and then you can use the information to work out how strong the Aurora will be in the South. Aurora australis over Antarctica as captured by NASA's IMAGE satellite on Sept. 11, 2005 and superimposed onto NASA's satellite-based Blue Marble image. The Aurora Australis Tasmania Facebook page is a great way to keep up with real-time sightings. The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory. If you are in a place where you can view the lights, you can get real time prediction that run around thirty minutes in advance. The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation. The latest 24 hours of image frames comprising the Northern and Southern hemisphere loops (with time-tagged file names) are available: Northern, Southern, The most recent Northern and Southern Hemisphere images (with static file names) are available: Northern, Southern. Step 3 -- Shop for a Dark Spot. There don’t seem to be any websites offering the information or making it available to the public. al., developed the OVATION model. An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. Today we will look at what exactly these Northern and Southern Lights are and what the differences ⦠If you are out and hunt for aurora, do not forget to enjoy the stunning night sky! Check the Aurora Australis Tasmania Facebook group for real time alerts, and download the Aurora Forecast app to forecast when an aurora is likely in the next few days. So we now have the scientific ability to predict just how active the Aurora is going to be. Van Allen Probes Radiation Belt Plots. NASA. My Aurora Forecast is the best app for seeing the Northern Lights and Southern Lights. This causes a geomagnetic storm, which tends to expand the aurora activity so that you can see it in New Zealand.